Deal setup
The basics. Everything downstream builds on this.
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Financial performance representation
What existing franchisees actually earn.
In plain English: do they tell you what's left over after expenses, or only sales?
Glossary: What's a "reporting store"?
Documents
Validation calls
Structured calls with current and former franchisees. Ask the same questions. Compare answers. Catch what the FDD won't tell you.
| Franchisee | Location · Yrs open | Year 1 sales | Sentiment | Buy again? | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jennifer K. Apr 19, 2026 |
Boulder, CO · 4 yrs | $812k | 9 / 10 | Yes | |
Marcus T. Apr 17, 2026 |
Park City, UT · 3 yrs | $742k | 8 / 10 | Yes | |
Dana R. Apr 15, 2026 |
Scottsdale, AZ · 2 yrs | $681k | 8 / 10 | Yes | |
Patricia L. Apr 12, 2026 |
Traverse City, MI · 6 yrs | $928k | 9 / 10 | Yes | |
Robert S. Apr 10, 2026 |
Charleston, SC · 5 yrs | $698k | 6 / 10 | Unsure | |
Amanda V. Apr 8, 2026 |
Savannah, GA · 2 yrs | $512k | 4 / 10 | No | |
Kevin O. Apr 5, 2026 |
Annapolis, MD · 3 yrs | $634k | 5 / 10 | No |
Financial model
5-year projection. Edit any assumption — the model updates everywhere. Sources traced from FDD and validation calls.
Line-by-line assumption review
Each expense gets three independent looks: what the FDD discloses, what our market model estimates for your territory, and what existing franchisees actually spend. Where they disagree, that's where to dig.
| Line item | FDD disclosed | AI estimate (Denver) | Peer median | Your working | Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Rent (monthly)
Fixed · Cherry Creek retail
|
$6.0k – $10.0k | $8.5k ± $0.8k |
$8.9k n=5 |
$8.2k | Moderate | |
|
Why they differ
FDD gives a national range. Our AI models Cherry Creek Class B retail at $48/sqft NNN for a 2,100 sqft footprint. Peer calls came in higher because most peers signed leases in 2022–23 at the market peak. Sources: CoStar Denver submarket, LoopNet Cherry Creek (last 90 days), 5 franchisee calls.
How to validate
What peers said
Jennifer K. · Boulder "$9.2k/mo base + $1.8k NNN. Co-tenancy clause helped." Amanda V. · Savannah "$7.5k but tourist-district pricing. Denver will be higher." |
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|
Labor (% of sales)
Variable · Colorado min wage $14.42
|
~25% implied | 29% ± 2 pts |
30% n=7 |
28% | High divergence | |
|
Why they differ
FDD Item 7 implies ~25% based on staffing guidance — but uses a $12/hr average. Colorado's 2026 min wage is $14.42. Peer calls confirm real-world labor runs 30%. Your working assumption of 28% may be optimistic. Flag: Consider raising working assumption to 30%.
How to validate
What peers said
Marcus T. · Park City "31%. Turnover killed us year one." Dana R. · Scottsdale "Running 28% now, was 34% in Y1." |
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|
COGS (% of sales)
Variable · Ingredient & packaging
|
32% | 34% | 35% n=6 |
34% | Aligned | |
|
Why they differ
Franchisor uses mandated supplier pricing. Our estimate adds 1.5–2 pts for shrinkage/waste typical at specialty food retail. Peer data confirms real-world runs slightly higher. How to validate
What peers said
Patricia L. · Traverse City "35% steady. Summer spikes to 38%." |
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|
Local marketing (monthly)
Beyond ad fund
|
$1.5k | $3.5k | $4.2k n=5 |
$3.5k | High divergence | |
|
Why they differ
FDD badly understates local marketing. Multiple peers reported spending 2–3× the disclosed figure to hit Year 1 ramp. This is a known gap across specialty food franchises. How to validate
What peers said
Robert S. · Charleston "$4k/mo. FDD said $1.5k. Won't hit ramp without it." |
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|
Royalty + ad fund
Contractual · Item 6
|
6% + 2% | 8% | 8% n=7 |
8% | Aligned | |
|
Owner's health insurance
Added by you
Fixed · not in FDD · self-employed plan
|
— | $1,950/mo ± $200 |
$1,650/mo n=3 |
$1,500/mo | Aligned |
|
|
Your notes
Leaving W2 job — need self-employed health plan for family of 4. FDD assumes you already have coverage. Real cost for most first-time owners. How to validate
What peers said
Dana R. · Scottsdale "$1.8k family plan. Huge surprise hit." |
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|
Utilities & other opex
Mixed
|
$2.8k/mo | $3.2k/mo | $3.5k/mo n=4 |
$3.5k/mo | Moderate | |
|
Why they differ
Kilwins requires freezer units 24/7. Xcel Energy rates in Cherry Creek are ~14% above national. Peer call data matches our estimate. How to validate
What peers said
Kevin O. · Annapolis "$3.8k avg. Spikes July/August." |
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Assumptions
Adjust sliders. Values update on the right.
Projected income statement
| $ in thousands | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 720 | 770 | 824 | 882 | 944 |
| YoY growth | — | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% |
| Cost of goods | (245) | (262) | (280) | (300) | (321) |
| Gross profit | 475 | 508 | 544 | 582 | 623 |
| Labor | (202) | (216) | (231) | (247) | (264) |
| Rent | (98) | (101) | (104) | (107) | (110) |
| Royalty & ad fund | (58) | (62) | (66) | (71) | (76) |
| Other opex | (42) | (44) | (46) | (48) | (50) |
| Operating income | 75 | 85 | 97 | 109 | 123 |
| Debt service | (44) | (44) | (44) | (44) | (44) |
| Owner's draw (pre-tax) | (60) | (75) | (85) | (95) | (100) |
| Free cash flow | (29) | (34) | (32) | (30) | (21) |
| SDE (pre-debt, pre-draw) | 135 | 160 | 182 | 204 | 223 |
Revenue trajectory
$ thousandsCumulative cash
$ thousandsScenario analysis
Three versions of the future. Because no one gets the forecast exactly right.
Slow ramp, 20% below Item 19 median.
Validation-call median outcome.
Strong first-year ramp.
Sensitivity: Year 3 SDE
How the outcome changes as two inputs move.
| Revenue Yr 1 ↓ / Labor → | 24% | 26% | 28% | 30% | 32% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $620k | 142 | 128 | 114 | 100 | 86 |
| $680k | 168 | 152 | 136 | 120 | 104 |
| $720k (base) | 196 | 178 | 182 | 142 | 124 |
| $780k | 228 | 208 | 188 | 168 | 148 |
| $840k | 262 | 240 | 218 | 196 | 174 |
Break-even analysis
What revenue level covers all fixed costs.
Risk assessment
Weighted across scenarios.
Investment memo
Your one-page decision document. Lender-ready. Sharable.
Kilwins — Cherry Creek, Denver
Approve a $438,000 investment in a single-unit Kilwins franchise in Cherry Creek, Denver. $175k cash equity, $263k SBA 7(a) loan. Target Year 3 SDE of $182k; cash-on-cash of 24.1%; payback ~3.8 years.
Why this deal works
- Strong brand fit. Validation calls show Kilwins outperforms in tourist markets. Cherry Creek fits the profile (18M visitors/yr, high disposable income).
- Durable economics. Franchise has operated 79 years. 148 units. Gross margins of 66% hold across the system.
- Financing structured conservatively. 40% equity, 10-year SBA term. Debt service coverage ratio 1.9x in base case — 50% above lender minimum.
- Personal runway sufficient. Buyer maintains 12 months operating runway outside the business in case of slow ramp.
Risks & mitigations
Conditions to proceed
- Obtain franchisor audited financial statements (most recent FY).
- Confirm 3 additional validation calls with top-quartile operators.
- Secure SBA pre-qualification letter at modeled rate (<11.5%).
- Review lease economics for Cherry Creek site with broker + attorney.
Scenario summary
| Scenario | Probability | Year 3 SDE | Payback | DSCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Downside | 30% | $94k | 6.2 yr | 1.1x |
| Base | 50% | $182k | 3.8 yr | 1.9x |
| Upside | 20% | $246k | 2.9 yr | 2.6x |
| Expected value | — | $168k | 4.1 yr | 1.8x |